Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Larkin 52.1% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 86.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 66.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Ryan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Ryan
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Ryan
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
51.8% (903)
+8.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
56.0% (225)
-27.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
47.4% (76)
-4.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larkin
Home
56.7% (254)
55.6% (662)
Away
55.0% (258)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Ryan
Larkin
P1
56.9%
49.9%
P2
51.7%
52.7%
P3
59.2%
53.0%
OT
0.0%
68.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |