Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs Larkin 54.2% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 69.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 59.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Ryan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Ryan
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
52.6% (1,117)
+8.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
60.7% (305)
+39.3%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
55.9% (177)
-4.2%
On power play, Ryan has a +39.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Ryan shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larkin
Home
64.2% (137)
54.7% (783)
Away
55.8% (113)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Ryan
Larkin
P1
58.9%
55.9%
P2
62.8%
56.1%
P3
59.3%
51.1%
Final 5 min
51.6%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:50 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |