Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Larkin 54.2% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 51.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 73.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Ryan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Ryan
Larkin
Last 6: Ryan 5-1 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
52.9% (1,228)
+6.2%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
63.1% (214)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
55.2% (145)
+2.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Ryan shoots right. Larkin is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larkin
Home
57.0% (398)
55.8% (805)
Away
59.5% (358)
53.2% (782)
By Period
Ryan
Larkin
P1
56.2%
55.2%
P2
56.9%
53.3%
P3
61.1%
55.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2019 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 3 | 03:42 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 18, 2019 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 1 | 18:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |