Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Gaudreau 50.0% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 80.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 53.9%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 64.1%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Ryan
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Ryan
Gaudreau
Last 8: Ryan 3-5 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
Gaudreau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
3
Ryan
Gaudreau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Ryan
Gaudreau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
49.1% (733)
+11.1%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.0% (80)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
48.6% (109)
-5.4%
On power play, Gaudreau has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Ryan is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Ryan shoots right. Gaudreau is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Ryan
Gaudreau
Home
56.7% (254)
53.0% (483)
Away
55.0% (258)
46.7% (439)
By Period
Ryan
Gaudreau
P1
56.9%
53.5%
P2
51.7%
47.5%
P3
59.2%
49.5%
OT
0.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
53.6%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 09:24 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |