Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.3%). Ryan wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs Gaudreau 49.3% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 55.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 66.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 59.0%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Ryan
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Ryan
Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Gaudreau
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Gaudreau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Gaudreau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
48.4% (770)
+2.5%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
58.7% (46)
+16.3%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
50.3% (199)
-5.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Ryan is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (98).
Ryan shoots right. Gaudreau is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Ryan
Gaudreau
Home
53.7% (214)
51.1% (507)
Away
46.4% (220)
47.4% (508)
By Period
Ryan
Gaudreau
P1
45.0%
49.4%
P2
50.0%
47.4%
P3
54.6%
51.2%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 14:59 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 01:21 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |