Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Schwartz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Schwartz 50.0% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 78.7%
Defensive zone
Ryan 93.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 74.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Ryan
Schwartz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Ryan
Schwartz
Last 9: Ryan 5-4 Schwartz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
0
3
Ryan
Schwartz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
0
Ryan
Schwartz
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schwartz
0
1
Ryan
Schwartz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Schwartz
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
47.2% (651)
+9.4%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
56.2% (345)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
43.5% (46)
+4.3%
On even strength, Ryan has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schwartz shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Schwartz is 48.6% vs right-shot opponents (424).
Home / Away
Ryan
Schwartz
Home
56.2% (2,559)
51.3% (526)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
48.6% (516)
By Period
Ryan
Schwartz
P1
55.1%
49.1%
P2
54.7%
49.7%
P3
56.0%
51.0%
OT
58.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
52.5%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:24 | Neutral | Jaden Schwartz |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 03:05 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |