Scouting Report
Jaden Schwartz holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Schwartz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Schwartz 54.4% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 89.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 89.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 54.0%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Ryan
Schwartz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Ryan
Schwartz
Last 8: Ryan 5-3 Schwartz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
0
2
Ryan
Schwartz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
0
Ryan
Schwartz
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schwartz
0
1
Ryan
Schwartz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Schwartz
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
45.8% (59)
+15.0%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
64.4% (101)
+35.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
0.0% (1)
+46.2%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schwartz shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Schwartz is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Home / Away
Ryan
Schwartz
Home
56.7% (201)
61.0% (82)
Away
54.8% (208)
53.2% (79)
By Period
Ryan
Schwartz
P1
56.7%
58.6%
P2
56.8%
46.8%
P3
53.7%
64.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
64.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:24 | Neutral | Jaden Schwartz |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |