Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs Kotkaniemi 51.5% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 54.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 87.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 72.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
52.8% (670)
+8.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
37.5% (32)
+62.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
14.3% (7)
+37.4%
On power play, Ryan has a +62.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Ryan shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
Home
64.2% (137)
52.5% (366)
Away
55.8% (113)
51.0% (343)
By Period
Ryan
Kotkaniemi
P1
58.9%
53.8%
P2
62.8%
49.2%
P3
59.3%
52.6%
Final 5 min
51.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 02:30 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |