Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 25-14 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 53.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Ryan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
25
(39 meetings)
14
25
Ryan
Duchene
Last 10: Ryan 7-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
9
Ryan
Duchene
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
12
Ryan
Duchene
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
4
Ryan
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.9% (10,396)
+2.7%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
56.9% (1,665)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
49.1% (468)
-1.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Ryan
Duchene
Home
56.2% (2,559)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Ryan
Duchene
P1
55.1%
54.5%
P2
54.7%
54.5%
P3
56.0%
53.4%
OT
58.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
52.5%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:52 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 2 | 08:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 02:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 01:21 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 2 | 19:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |