Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 56.5%). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Duchene 55.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 83.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Ryan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Ryan
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Ryan
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
56.5% (566)
+4.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.3% (62)
+38.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
22.2% (9)
+24.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +38.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Ryan
Duchene
Home
56.7% (201)
56.6% (318)
Away
54.8% (208)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Ryan
Duchene
P1
56.7%
57.2%
P2
56.8%
55.1%
P3
53.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:52 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |