Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs Duchene 52.1% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 53.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 87.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 75.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Ryan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Ryan
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
53.0% (723)
+8.4%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
49.5% (101)
+50.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
43.8% (16)
+7.9%
On power play, Ryan has a +50.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Ryan shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Ryan
Duchene
Home
64.2% (137)
54.9% (408)
Away
55.8% (113)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Ryan
Duchene
P1
58.9%
52.5%
P2
62.8%
51.7%
P3
59.3%
53.6%
Final 5 min
51.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |