Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 73.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 94.1%
Neutral zone
Ryan 92.5%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Ryan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
Ryan
MacKinnon
Last 10: Ryan 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
2
Ryan
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
4
Ryan
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
7
0
Ryan
MacKinnon
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
46.1% (11,218)
+10.5%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
53.3% (1,412)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
42.8% (502)
+5.0%
On even strength, Ryan has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Ryan
MacKinnon
Home
56.2% (2,559)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Ryan
MacKinnon
P1
55.1%
47.4%
P2
54.7%
46.6%
P3
56.0%
46.1%
OT
58.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
52.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 08:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2019 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 2 | 15:37 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |