Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 63.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 93.0%
Neutral zone
Ryan 83.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 88.4%
88.4%
11.6%
Ryan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Ryan
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
45.5% (1,190)
+15.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
56.4% (94)
+43.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
40.0% (30)
+6.2%
On power play, Ryan has a +43.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ryan is 63.2% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Ryan shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Ryan
MacKinnon
Home
56.7% (201)
47.8% (670)
Away
54.8% (208)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Ryan
MacKinnon
P1
56.7%
45.3%
P2
56.8%
48.5%
P3
53.7%
45.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |