Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 66.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 74.2%
25.8%
74.2%
Ryan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Ryan
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
44.7% (1,053)
+6.2%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
36.8% (95)
+38.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
65.0% (20)
-19.7%
On power play, Ryan has a +38.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ryan is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (98).
Ryan shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Ryan
MacKinnon
Home
53.7% (214)
49.4% (553)
Away
46.4% (220)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Ryan
MacKinnon
P1
45.0%
45.3%
P2
50.0%
42.7%
P3
54.6%
45.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 08:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |