Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 52.0% vs Schmaltz 44.1% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 59.7%
Defensive zone
Ryan 92.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 88.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
Ryan
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ryan
Schmaltz
Last 5: Ryan 4-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
1
Ryan
Schmaltz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (603)
41.7% (338)
+12.4%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
47.1% (34)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (85)
75.0% (4)
-29.1%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +29.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Ryan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Ryan shoots right. Schmaltz is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
Ryan
Schmaltz
Home
52.5% (341)
48.2% (166)
Away
52.2% (391)
38.1% (210)
By Period
Ryan
Schmaltz
P1
56.0%
42.1%
P2
48.1%
45.8%
P3
52.8%
41.4%
OT
33.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
47.5%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.3%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 09:01 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 14:18 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 06:35 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |