Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Schmaltz 48.4% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 84.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 82.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 50.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Ryan
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Ryan
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Ryan
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
42.9% (133)
+17.3%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
55.1% (89)
-26.5%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
47.1% (17)
-3.9%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Ryan is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Ryan shoots right. Schmaltz is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Ryan
Schmaltz
Home
56.7% (254)
41.6% (125)
Away
55.0% (258)
54.4% (114)
By Period
Ryan
Schmaltz
P1
56.9%
40.0%
P2
51.7%
59.5%
P3
59.2%
45.0%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |