Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Johansen 53.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 83.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 51.8%
Neutral zone
Johansen 67.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 73.9%
26.1%
73.9%
Ryan
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Johansen
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Ryan
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Ryan
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
54.7% (1,149)
+4.4%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
49.7% (191)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
47.9% (121)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Ryan is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Ryan shoots right. Johansen is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (493).
Home / Away
Ryan
Johansen
Home
57.0% (398)
52.5% (739)
Away
59.5% (358)
54.6% (722)
By Period
Ryan
Johansen
P1
56.2%
53.8%
P2
56.9%
55.8%
P3
61.1%
51.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2018 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |