Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 66.7%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 56.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 54.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Ryan
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Ryan
Lafferty
Last 8: Ryan 4-4 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
2
3
Ryan
Lafferty
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
48.0% (1,413)
+8.6%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
45.7% (46)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
43.5% (184)
+4.3%
On even strength, Ryan has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Lafferty is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Ryan
Lafferty
Home
56.2% (2,559)
47.3% (833)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Ryan
Lafferty
P1
55.1%
49.4%
P2
54.7%
43.1%
P3
56.0%
49.8%
OT
58.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:06 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:14 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |