Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Steel 50.2% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 15-7 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 70.5%
Defensive zone
Steel 67.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 67.0%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Ryan
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
15
(22 meetings)
7
15
Ryan
Steel
Last 10: Ryan 3-7 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
5
11
Ryan
Steel
16 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Steel
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Ryan
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
50.6% (2,876)
+6.0%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
62.6% (179)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
37.4% (254)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Ryan
Steel
Home
56.2% (2,559)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Ryan
Steel
P1
55.1%
51.9%
P2
54.7%
49.5%
P3
56.0%
49.6%
OT
58.3%
41.9%
Final 5 min
52.5%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:02 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 02:26 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 06:48 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 11:51 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 3 | 16:09 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |