Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Monahan 51.3% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 65.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 73.0%
Neutral zone
Ryan 53.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Ryan
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
17
(32 meetings)
15
17
Ryan
Monahan
Last 10: Ryan 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
12
Ryan
Monahan
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
9
2
Ryan
Monahan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Ryan
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
51.1% (11,356)
+5.5%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
53.7% (2,580)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
46.0% (766)
+1.8%
On even strength, Ryan has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Ryan
Monahan
Home
56.2% (2,559)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Ryan
Monahan
P1
55.1%
50.9%
P2
54.7%
51.7%
P3
56.0%
51.0%
OT
58.3%
53.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |