Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Monahan 51.2% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 65.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 76.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 54.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Ryan
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
17
(32 meetings)
15
17
Ryan
Monahan
Last 10: Ryan 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
12
Ryan
Monahan
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
9
2
Ryan
Monahan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Ryan
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
51.1% (11,197)
+5.5%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
53.6% (2,558)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
46.0% (733)
+1.8%
On even strength, Ryan has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,301).
Home / Away
Ryan
Monahan
Home
56.2% (2,559)
52.3% (7,234)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
50.2% (7,254)
By Period
Ryan
Monahan
P1
55.1%
51.0%
P2
54.7%
51.6%
P3
56.0%
51.1%
OT
58.3%
53.7%
Final 5 min
52.5%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |