Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 64.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 73.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 74.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Ryan
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Ryan
Lorentz
Last 7: Ryan 4-3 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
3
Ryan
Lorentz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
48.9% (1,118)
+7.7%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
50.0% (26)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
41.9% (86)
+5.9%
On even strength, Ryan has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Lorentz is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (450).
Home / Away
Ryan
Lorentz
Home
56.2% (2,559)
50.8% (606)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Ryan
Lorentz
P1
55.1%
53.0%
P2
54.7%
46.8%
P3
56.0%
46.1%
OT
58.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 14:36 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 04:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 01:56 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |