Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Lorentz 47.6% (+10.4%)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 71.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 78.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 56.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Ryan
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
46.5% (101)
+13.7%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
33.3% (3)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
37.5% (8)
+5.7%
On even strength, Ryan has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. Lorentz is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Home / Away
Ryan
Lorentz
Home
56.7% (254)
49.1% (53)
Away
55.0% (258)
42.4% (59)
By Period
Ryan
Lorentz
P1
56.9%
48.6%
P2
51.7%
36.7%
P3
59.2%
57.7%
Final 5 min
53.6%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.5%