Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 54.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 74.0%
Neutral zone
Ryan 59.9%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Ryan
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Ryan
Lorentz
Last 6: Ryan 4-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Ryan
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
48.3% (497)
+2.6%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
63.6% (11)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
38.5% (39)
+6.8%
On power play, Ryan has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Ryan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Ryan shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Ryan
Lorentz
Home
53.7% (214)
50.4% (238)
Away
46.4% (220)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Ryan
Lorentz
P1
45.0%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
48.0%
P3
54.6%
47.2%
Final 5 min
45.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 14:36 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 04:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 01:56 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |