Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 82.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 79.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 50.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Ryan
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Ryan
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Ryan
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
48.9% (135)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
50.0% (4)
-3.8%
On even strength, Ryan has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Lorentz is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (42).
Home / Away
Ryan
Lorentz
Home
56.7% (201)
50.7% (75)
Away
54.8% (208)
46.9% (64)
By Period
Ryan
Lorentz
P1
56.7%
60.0%
P2
56.8%
46.3%
P3
53.7%
44.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |