Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Novak 43.3% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 80.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 56.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Ryan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Ryan
Novak
Last 10: Ryan 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
4
Ryan
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
42.1% (1,539)
+14.5%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
51.9% (133)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
50.0% (2)
-2.2%
On even strength, Ryan has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Ryan
Novak
Home
56.2% (2,559)
45.3% (814)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Ryan
Novak
P1
55.1%
43.9%
P2
54.7%
42.8%
P3
56.0%
41.7%
OT
58.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 09:42 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:50 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:10 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |