Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs Novak 45.6% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 75.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 74.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.9%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 75.9%
24.1%
75.9%
Ryan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Ryan
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
43.8% (384)
+7.1%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
58.8% (17)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
100.0% (1)
-54.7%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Ryan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Ryan shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Ryan
Novak
Home
53.7% (214)
46.5% (202)
Away
46.4% (220)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Ryan
Novak
P1
45.0%
49.2%
P2
50.0%
44.2%
P3
54.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 09:42 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |