Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Novak 46.5% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 54.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 90.5%
Neutral zone
Ryan 77.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Ryan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Ryan
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
43.2% (118)
+17.0%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
47.8% (23)
-19.2%
On power play, Novak has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. Novak is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (53).
Home / Away
Ryan
Novak
Home
56.7% (254)
50.7% (71)
Away
55.0% (258)
37.1% (70)
By Period
Ryan
Novak
P1
56.9%
44.7%
P2
51.7%
50.0%
P3
59.2%
38.9%
Final 5 min
53.6%
35.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:50 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 1 | 16:10 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |