Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Novak 43.5% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 92.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 57.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 78.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 79.5%
20.5%
79.5%
Ryan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Novak
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Ryan
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Ryan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
40.7% (460)
+20.1%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.5% (39)
+38.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
0.0% (1)
+46.2%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Ryan
Novak
Home
56.7% (201)
47.0% (236)
Away
54.8% (208)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Ryan
Novak
P1
56.7%
43.1%
P2
56.8%
43.1%
P3
53.7%
40.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |