Scouting Report
Dominic Toninato holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toninato on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Toninato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Toninato 48.8% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Nelson
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Toninato
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
0
4
Nelson
Toninato
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Toninato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.6% (103)
-1.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
100.0% (2)
-65.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
25.0% (4)
+5.4%
On power play, Toninato has a +65.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Toninato is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toninato
Home
48.7% (419)
47.3% (55)
Away
41.3% (368)
48.1% (54)
By Period
Nelson
Toninato
P1
44.6%
55.9%
P2
47.3%
51.6%
P3
43.0%
38.6%
Final 5 min
39.4%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:29 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:58 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |