Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Cozens wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs Eller 49.5% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 55.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 80.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 64.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Cozens
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Cozens
Eller
Last 10: Cozens 7-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
5
1
Cozens
Eller
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Cozens
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
1
Cozens
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
51.1% (786)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
45.0% (80)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
43.6% (165)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Cozens is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Cozens shoots right. Eller is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Cozens
Eller
Home
43.9% (410)
51.2% (510)
Away
47.2% (430)
47.8% (521)
By Period
Cozens
Eller
P1
46.4%
50.7%
P2
41.6%
49.0%
P3
49.4%
48.3%
OT
0.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 14:49 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 3 | 18:51 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 1 | 18:37 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:59 | Defensive | Lars Eller |