Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 72.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 67.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 70.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Cozens
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cozens
Carlsson
Last 5: Cozens 1-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Cozens
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
3
Cozens
Carlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
45.5% (661)
+7.1%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
46.3% (82)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
33.3% (84)
+0.0%
On power play, Cozens has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Cozens shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Home / Away
Cozens
Carlsson
Home
54.1% (375)
42.5% (428)
Away
52.3% (331)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Cozens
Carlsson
P1
55.8%
45.4%
P2
50.6%
39.7%
P3
53.7%
48.5%
OT
40.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
50.7%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |