Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs Kastelic 55.9% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 76.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 79.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 51.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Cozens
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Cozens
Kastelic
Last 8: Cozens 4-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
4
0
Cozens
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
4
Cozens
Kastelic
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (859)
58.0% (476)
-8.6%
Power Play
49.5% (186)
75.0% (8)
-25.5%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (129)
50.9% (106)
-11.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Cozens is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Cozens shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Cozens
Kastelic
Home
49.0% (600)
64.9% (265)
Away
47.6% (574)
50.5% (325)
By Period
Cozens
Kastelic
P1
46.5%
58.5%
P2
52.9%
55.6%
P3
45.2%
56.8%
Final 5 min
45.1%
62.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 17:55 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |