Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 65.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 92.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 74.1%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Cozens
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Cozens
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
0
Cozens
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
61.2% (340)
-8.6%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
83.3% (6)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
56.0% (141)
-22.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Cozens is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Cozens shoots right. Kastelic is 68.3% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Home / Away
Cozens
Kastelic
Home
54.1% (375)
60.9% (233)
Away
52.3% (331)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Cozens
Kastelic
P1
55.8%
58.6%
P2
50.6%
58.7%
P3
53.7%
63.1%
OT
40.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.7%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |