Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 50.6% vs Duchene 52.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 50.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 51.8%
Neutral zone
Cozens 50.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Cozens
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cozens
Duchene
Last 6: Cozens 3-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cozens
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (891)
53.0% (723)
-1.6%
Power Play
50.5% (184)
49.5% (101)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (85)
43.8% (16)
-1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cozens is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Cozens shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Cozens
Duchene
Home
49.5% (638)
54.9% (408)
Away
51.9% (522)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Cozens
Duchene
P1
51.9%
52.5%
P2
46.4%
51.7%
P3
54.2%
53.6%
OT
16.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |