Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs Backlund 49.7% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 80.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 86.0%
Neutral zone
Backlund 54.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Cozens
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Cozens
Backlund
Last 10: Cozens 4-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Cozens
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
3
Cozens
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
50.1% (891)
+2.5%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
53.1% (64)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
47.8% (278)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Cozens shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Cozens
Backlund
Home
54.1% (375)
48.1% (580)
Away
52.3% (331)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Cozens
Backlund
P1
55.8%
45.1%
P2
50.6%
54.7%
P3
53.7%
49.0%
OT
40.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
50.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 30, 2025 | OT | 00:26 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:43 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |