Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Backlund 50.3% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 78.4%
Defensive zone
Cozens 50.3%
Neutral zone
Cozens 61.6%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Cozens
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Cozens
Backlund
Last 8: Cozens 3-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
0
Cozens
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
4
Cozens
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Cozens
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
51.0% (1,205)
-4.3%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
59.3% (108)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
42.3% (234)
+0.0%
On power play, Backlund has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Cozens is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Cozens shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Cozens
Backlund
Home
46.2% (567)
51.2% (782)
Away
44.9% (579)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Cozens
Backlund
P1
46.5%
51.5%
P2
46.5%
49.8%
P3
44.2%
49.9%
OT
22.2%
37.5%
Final 5 min
42.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:44 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 12:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 13:53 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |