Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Cozens wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 87.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 62.3%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Cozens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Cozens
Dowd
Last 10: Cozens 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
6
0
Cozens
Dowd
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Cozens
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Cozens
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (859)
55.2% (625)
-5.8%
Power Play
49.5% (186)
57.1% (7)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (129)
38.2% (220)
+1.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cozens is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Cozens shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Cozens
Dowd
Home
49.0% (600)
53.7% (445)
Away
47.6% (574)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Cozens
Dowd
P1
46.5%
48.8%
P2
52.9%
49.3%
P3
45.2%
54.0%
OT
53.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.1%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 16:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | OT | 01:35 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |