Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.9%). Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 50.6% vs Dowd 49.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 89.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 78.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.5%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Cozens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Cozens
Dowd
Last 8: Cozens 4-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
1
Cozens
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Cozens
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (891)
52.2% (835)
-0.8%
Power Play
50.5% (184)
60.0% (10)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (85)
44.0% (350)
-1.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cozens is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Cozens shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Cozens
Dowd
Home
49.5% (638)
51.5% (619)
Away
51.9% (522)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Cozens
Dowd
P1
51.9%
51.7%
P2
46.4%
51.6%
P3
54.2%
47.0%
OT
16.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:53 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |