Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings). Cozens wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 22-22 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 91.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.8%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Cozens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
22
(44 meetings)
22
22
Cozens
Dowd
Last 10: Cozens 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
13
2
Cozens
Dowd
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
12
Cozens
Dowd
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
8
8
Cozens
Dowd
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (4,075)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.5%
Power Play
50.4% (714)
56.1% (164)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (439)
44.1% (1,635)
-3.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cozens is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,449).
Cozens shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Cozens
Dowd
Home
48.2% (2,677)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
48.6% (2,551)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Cozens
Dowd
P1
49.1%
51.7%
P2
47.7%
50.4%
P3
48.8%
50.3%
OT
34.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
46.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:21 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 05:31 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:53 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |