Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Cozens wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 73.9%
Defensive zone
Cozens 61.3%
Neutral zone
Cozens 69.8%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Cozens
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Cozens
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Cozens
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
56.6% (1,064)
-11.0%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
60.4% (260)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
54.0% (261)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cozens is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Cozens shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Cozens
O'Reilly
Home
43.9% (410)
54.9% (801)
Away
47.2% (430)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Cozens
O'Reilly
P1
46.4%
58.0%
P2
41.6%
56.7%
P3
49.4%
55.4%
OT
0.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 10:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |