Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.6%
Defensive zone
Cozens 71.1%
Neutral zone
Cozens 54.2%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Cozens
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Cozens
O'Reilly
Last 9: Cozens 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Cozens
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
2
Cozens
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Cozens
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
55.0% (1,084)
-8.3%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
56.8% (303)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
40.3% (149)
+2.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cozens is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Cozens shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Cozens
O'Reilly
Home
46.2% (567)
54.8% (759)
Away
44.9% (579)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Cozens
O'Reilly
P1
46.5%
55.3%
P2
46.5%
51.9%
P3
44.2%
54.2%
OT
22.2%
64.7%
Final 5 min
42.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 10:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 11:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 05:56 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 02:50 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 2 | 11:31 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |