Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 50.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.3%
Defensive zone
Cozens 61.2%
Neutral zone
Cozens 50.4%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Cozens
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Cozens
O'Reilly
Last 9: Cozens 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
1
Cozens
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Cozens
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (891)
56.2% (983)
-4.8%
Power Play
50.5% (184)
55.5% (254)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (85)
52.0% (102)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cozens is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Cozens shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Cozens
O'Reilly
Home
49.5% (638)
56.2% (697)
Away
51.9% (522)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Cozens
O'Reilly
P1
51.9%
54.5%
P2
46.4%
55.5%
P3
54.2%
57.1%
OT
16.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:35 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |