Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 87.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 74.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 75.9%
24.1%
75.9%
Cozens
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Cozens
O'Reilly
Last 8: Cozens 5-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
2
Cozens
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (859)
56.1% (690)
-6.7%
Power Play
49.5% (186)
64.6% (96)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (129)
45.9% (109)
-6.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cozens is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Cozens shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Cozens
O'Reilly
Home
49.0% (600)
58.3% (408)
Away
47.6% (574)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Cozens
O'Reilly
P1
46.5%
57.7%
P2
52.9%
54.8%
P3
45.2%
55.2%
OT
53.8%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:01 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |