Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 49.4% vs Larkin 54.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 72.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 79.5%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 51.0%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Tkachuk
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tkachuk
Larkin
Last 6: Tkachuk 3-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
1
Tkachuk
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Tkachuk
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (106)
52.9% (1,228)
+1.8%
Power Play
35.7% (42)
63.1% (214)
-27.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
55.2% (145)
-55.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +55.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tkachuk is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Tkachuk shoots left. Larkin is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,085).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Larkin
Home
50.0% (66)
55.8% (805)
Away
48.2% (83)
53.2% (782)
By Period
Tkachuk
Larkin
P1
53.2%
55.2%
P2
47.5%
53.3%
P3
46.3%
55.1%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
49.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 04:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 04:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |