Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 49.3% vs Larkin 54.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.1%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 73.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Blackwell
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Blackwell
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
Blackwell
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
4
0
Blackwell
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (184)
52.6% (1,117)
-4.2%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
60.7% (305)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (121)
55.9% (177)
-6.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Blackwell is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Blackwell shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Larkin
Home
41.7% (151)
54.7% (783)
Away
56.1% (157)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Blackwell
Larkin
P1
46.5%
55.9%
P2
52.4%
56.1%
P3
48.5%
51.1%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
49.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:22 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |