Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Rodrigues 47.3% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 81.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 82.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
Larkin
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Rodrigues
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Rodrigues
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Rodrigues
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Rodrigues
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
47.9% (637)
+3.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
47.9% (71)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
37.3% (67)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Larkin
Rodrigues
Home
52.4% (647)
48.3% (429)
Away
52.7% (643)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Larkin
Rodrigues
P1
52.2%
48.3%
P2
53.1%
46.9%
P3
51.7%
45.6%
OT
61.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
55.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |