Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Rodrigues 46.0% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 96.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 92.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 91.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 94.2%
94.2%
5.8%
Larkin
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
8
(26 meetings)
18
8
Larkin
Rodrigues
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
5
Larkin
Rodrigues
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Rodrigues
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
1
Larkin
Rodrigues
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
46.2% (2,883)
+5.5%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
45.0% (298)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.9% (219)
+7.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Home / Away
Larkin
Rodrigues
Home
54.0% (6,238)
47.1% (1,820)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
44.4% (1,580)
By Period
Larkin
Rodrigues
P1
52.7%
46.9%
P2
53.1%
46.1%
P3
52.1%
44.6%
OT
58.4%
48.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 3 | 10:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 07:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |