Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Malkin 49.4% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 69.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 65.1%
Neutral zone
Malkin 51.8%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Larkin
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Larkin
Malkin
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
5
Larkin
Malkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
Malkin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
49.0% (811)
+4.6%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
55.8% (43)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
50.0% (2)
-1.3%
On even strength, Larkin has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Malkin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (568).
Home / Away
Larkin
Malkin
Home
56.6% (700)
52.3% (438)
Away
52.1% (655)
46.2% (418)
By Period
Larkin
Malkin
P1
55.4%
51.3%
P2
54.7%
50.8%
P3
52.7%
45.0%
OT
59.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
54.4%
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:48 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:42 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:36 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |