Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Malkin 48.7% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 82.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.3%
Neutral zone
Malkin 60.9%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Larkin
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Larkin
Malkin
Last 7: Larkin 3-4 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
2
Larkin
Malkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Malkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Malkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
47.9% (776)
+8.0%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
66.7% (24)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
100.0% (1)
-53.8%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +53.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Malkin is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Larkin
Malkin
Home
56.0% (654)
49.6% (405)
Away
54.8% (639)
47.5% (396)
By Period
Larkin
Malkin
P1
54.4%
49.6%
P2
55.9%
47.2%
P3
55.2%
48.5%
OT
64.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 14:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:09 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |