Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuznetsov on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuznetsov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Kuznetsov 47.7% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 60.0%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 54.1%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 56.8%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Larkin
Kuznetsov
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Larkin
Kuznetsov
Last 9: Larkin 4-5 Kuznetsov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
0
2
Larkin
Kuznetsov
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Kuznetsov
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
2
3
Larkin
Kuznetsov
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuznetsov
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
47.7% (927)
+5.9%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
53.5% (71)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
39.4% (71)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuznetsov shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Kuznetsov is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuznetsov
Home
56.6% (700)
45.9% (534)
Away
52.1% (655)
49.2% (535)
By Period
Larkin
Kuznetsov
P1
55.4%
44.8%
P2
54.7%
52.1%
P3
52.7%
44.5%
OT
59.1%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2022 | OT | 03:29 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 18:28 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |